A century from now, South Koreans will number no more than today’s North Koreans with population more or less halved to 25.82 million in 2115 from 51.01 million of 2015, according to the government estimate.

According to latest demographic study released by Statistics Korea on Thursday, population in Korea would peak at 52.96 million in 2031 and head downwards to reach 43 million in 2065, shrinking to a nation in the size of 1990.

The data also showed that the number of economically active population aged between 15 and 64 in the nation peaking at 37.63 million this year to lose by 300,000 every year from 2020 and total 20.62 million by 2065. The economically active people accounted for 73.4 percent of the total population in 2015, the largest share among the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries, but the rate would plunge to the bottom level of 47.9 percent in 2065.

A half century from now, Korea could become one of the most oldest and unenergetic countries in the world.

The ominous harbinger was raised in the first demographic government estimate in the span of a hundred years. The statistics bureau has made long-term projection every five years since 2011. The demographic projection reflected birth rate, life expectancy, migration and other factors that affect population for reference for long-term social and economic development outline including social welfare and fiscal policies, the statistical office said.

The projection of population peak year was postponed by one year from its earlier forecast made in 2011 due to the rising people’s life expectancy and inflows of foreign nationals, according to Lee Ji-yeon from Statistics Korea.

The nation’s total population is likely to rapidly thin and fall below long-held 50 million threshold starting 2055 to 47.43 million and 43.02 million in 2065 unless significant changes occur to demographic factors such as birth rate, life expectancy and net inflow of foreigners.

According to the medium-growth scenario, the economically active population would come at 12.43 million in 2115 while the number of people aged over 65 would rise to 10.98 million accounting for 42.5 percent of the total population, and people aged between 0 and 14 would take up 9.4 percent to 2.41 million. It means that 100 workers would have to support 107.7 old citizens or minors.

Life expectancy for female would reach at 94.9 and male at 92.9 in 2115, higher than 91.6 and 88.4 in 2065 respectively.

By Kim Gyu-sik

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